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Next Generation Air Dominance
The Next Generation Air Dominance (NGAD) is a United States Air Force (USAF) sixth-generation air superiority initiative with a goal of fielding a “family of systems” that is to succeed the Lockheed Martin F-22 Raptor. A crewed fighter aircraft is the centerpiece program of NGAD and has been referred to as the Penetrating Counter-Air (PCA) platform and is to be supported by uncrewed collaborative combat aircraft (CCA), or loyal wingman platforms, through manned-unmanned teaming (MUM-T).
According to Wiki, the NGAD originates from DARPA’s Air Dominance Initiative study in 2014 and is expected to field the new fighter aircraft in the 2030s. While originally pitched as a joint Air Force-Navy program, the two services established separate offices and programs. Despite sharing the same name, the Air Force’s NGAD effort is distinct from the Navy’s, which has the F/A-XX as its crewed fighter component and would have a similar fielding timeframe.
As already explained, a new fighter jet prototype that could become the USAF top combat aircraft has been secretly built and flown by the service, former assistant secretary of the Air Force for acquisition, technology and logistics Dr. Will Roper revealed in September 2020 during the virtual 2020 Air, Space and Cyber conference. In the same year the US Air Force Material Command (AFMC) revealed the (delta) shape of a new aircraft thought to be that of USAF NGAD in a tweet that celebrated the 73rd birthday of the service.
In 2023 Air Force Secretary Frank Kendall revealed at the POLITICO Defense Summit on Nov. 14 that there was a secret, multi-agency X-plane program to explore future fighters that paved the way for the Next-Generation Air Dominance (NGAD) program.
NGAD Program paused
As reported by Breaking Defense, in July 2024, Secretary of the Air Force Frank Kendall announced that the Air Force was “taking a pause” on the crewed component of the NGAD program. “With the platform itself, we’re taking a pause. With the rest of the elements of the air dominance family of systems, we’re moving forward as fast as we can.” Kendall also expressed confidence that the Air Force was “still going to do a sixth-generation crewed aircraft.”
In September 2024, Air Force Vice Chief of Staff Gen. James Slife reiterated the Air Force’s decision to pause the PCA component of the NGAD program, stating that they were “starting at the beginning” with the requirements, according to reporting by The Warzone. “I know what the mission that we have to get done is, but I don’t know that we need to build an airplane to do the mission,” said Gen. Slife, referencing the NGAD’s status as a system of systems rather than a single crewed fighter.
Why did the USAF paused the NGAD? Did Chinese steal the entire NGAD project and made it into J-36?
Eric Wicklund, former US Navy Operations Specialist, explains on Quora;
‘There’s a bunch of reasons why the NGAD program has “paused.”
‘The number one reason is: cost. Each NGAD is expected to cost North of $300 Million. Considering that the Air Force wants between 400 and 800, that’s a lot of dinero.
Emerging technologies
‘Many emerging technologies are the other reasons.
- With excellent CCAs (Collaborative Combat Aircraft) emerging now, do we really need a sixth gen fighter? These CCAs will make any plane 4th gen and above far more survivable. So, how much does the NGAD need to do when CCAs can do the heavy lifting.
- New missile tech like the Peregrine (half the size of AMRAAM—equal capability) can effectively expand missile magazines, making CCAs more powerful. Then missiles like the AIM-174B can turn anything, even a B-21 bomber, into a long range sniper. With that available, what should the NGAD be capable of? Do we even need one? I think we still do, but we may be able to scale back on capability to reduce the price tag.
- Emerging AI capability makes us wonder if the plane should be piloted or not. Do we really need a manned NGAD, or can we move on to a more cost-efficient CCA with an AI pilot? Should the NGAD be more mothership and control node than fighter?
The reasons why NGAD Program is temporary paused
‘China hasn’t stolen anything related to the NGAD, and even if they did they wouldn’t be able to put together a finished product like the J-36 that fast. It’s the reasons above that NGAD is on temporary hold.
‘As it stands now, the Air Force and Navy want upwards of 1,000 CCAs of various types. These are not consumer-grade quadcopters, but large and highly capable machines that will cost $30 Million a pop. You can buy an advanced jet trainer for a similar price. Getting 1,000 of these is going to hit the Congressional wallet pretty hard, and that’s why the NGAD project is paused.’
Wicklund concludes;
‘Given these, and many more emerging technologies, all coming out very fast furious, I think planners in the DoD and Pentagon want time to rethink the strategy of the NGAD given all these advancements.’
Photo credit: Lockheed Martin and Boeing
