In this article:
Lightning II Program
Abraham Abrams is an expert in military affairs and security holding a master’s degree in War Studies from King’s College London, with a thesis on PLA modernisation, as well as a Masters in East Asian International Relations. He has studied the F-35 program for over a decade, and in his latest book assessed its development in the context of both historical trends in the US air power development, and global developments in aerial warfare.
Balancing both positive and critical assessments of the F-35 program, his latest book is titled: F-35 Joint Strike Fighter: A Great and Terrible Program. Abrams previously published two books on the F-35’s closest rival in terms of performance and production scale, the Chinese J-20, including J-20 Mighty Dragon: Asia’s First Stealth Fighter in the Era of China’s Military Rise with Helion & Company, and the longer title China’s Stealth Fighter: The J-20 ‘Mighty Dragon’ and the Growing Challenge to Western Air Dominance with Pen & Sword.
Developed under the largest weapons program in history, F-35 Joint Strike Fighter is today in production on a larger scale than any other manned combat jet in the world, with its capabilities having greater implications for the global balance of power than those of any other military asset. The extent to which the US Armed Forces and American strategic partners rely on the fighter remains wholly unprecedented, with the large majority of US Air Force fighter procurements, all those by the Marine Corps, and from 2027 all those by the Navy, being F-35s.
Here’s why Taiwan could receive the F-35
As the only fighter of its generation in production in the Western world, evaluations made across multiple tenders have consistently concluded that the F-35 operates in an entirely different league to other Western combat jets, with this superiority giving the program a particular significance in an era of high geopolitical tensions.
The Aviation Geek Club recently asked its readers to submit questions about the F-35 Lightning II. We submitted them to Abrams.
This post features the final 5 answers. CLICK HERE and HERE to read the first and second part of the Q&A with Abrams.
– Will Taiwan ever receive the F-35?
An excellent and very interesting question. Attempts to order the F-35 have been made by various administrations in Taipei since the early 2000s, but have consistently been rebuffed for a number of reasons. The Republic of China based in Taipei is not recognised by the United Nations or by all but 12 UN member states, all small countries that make up 0.15 percent of global GDP, which has made sales of high performance armaments highly controversial.
Even efforts to procure F-16s were repeatedly rebuffed under the Reagan, George W. Bush and Obama administrations, while the George H. W. Bush administration provided only heavily downgraded F-16A/B Block 20 variants with reduced ranges in the 1990s. Aside from Taipei’s political status, supplying the F-35 would pose a significant risk of mainland China gaining considerable intelligence on the fighter type, including through espionage, possible defections, and radar and signals intelligence capabilities which cover the length and breadth of possible deployment locations.
France considering to supply Rafale to Taiwan
Despite the risks of supplying the F-35, there is a significant possibility that a sale will eventually be approved. Indications from November 2025 that the Trump administration plans to export the fighter to Saudi Arabia indicates a major turning point in export policies to provide the aircraft to clients outside Washington’s core strategic partners in the developed world. The development of both the F-47, and of a ‘5+ generation’ variant of the F-35, make the technologies of more basic variants less sensitive, potentially allowing these to be provided to a much wider range of clients including the Republic of China Air Force. A further significant factor is that reports that France is considering supplying Rafale fighters to Taipei, which could diminish the international norm against selling high performing military equipment, thus reducing the political costs of supplying F-35s.
– How would the F-35 fare against Chinese J-20 and J-35 fifth gen fighters?
A very difficult question. Considering the sophistication of the Chinese industrial base and the scale at which the country conducts cutting edge research and development, the fighters are very likely to have at least comparable levels of sophistication to the F-35. Both Chinese fighter types are much better optimised for air superiority missions, where the F-35 was developed primarily as a strike fighter and appears to be significantly better suited to air defence suppression operations.
Lightning II Vs Chinese fifth gen fighters…
While the Pentagon has cut a number of possible upgrades to the F-35, most notably the Adaptive Engine Transition Program which had key features such as a “third stream” of bypass air system for greater efficiency, China has consistently invested in maximising the capabilities of the J-20, which is currently on its third engine, the WS-15, that likely gives it the highest thrust output of any fighter type in the world.
The J-20’s design has gone through very significant design changes since it first entered service, which appear to have improved its flight performance and stealth capabilities, while there have been no signs of similarly significant changes to the F-35’s design since it entered service. The Chinese fighter appears to be a technologically fully peer level fighter to the F-35 which has benefited from a much faster rate of incremental improvements.
It also boasts a larger airframe better optimised for air-to-air combat, with a much longer range, superior flight performance particularly with the WS-15, and a similarly advanced but much larger radar. Fortunately for the United States, China has not exported the J-20 or J-35, with neither expected to proliferate widely, which will likely ensure that the F-35 retains significant superiority in air-to-air engagements in any conflict short of a major war with China.
… And Vs Chinese sixth gen fighters
– How would the F-35 fare against new Chinese sixth gen fighters?
Likely not well, especially if fighting across very long supply lines in the Western Pacific, where support from tankers, AEW&Cs, and other assets will be more constrained that what China can field in the region. Nevertheless, a growing consensus that the US will not be able to bring the F-47 into service until the 2040s is likely to result in increased efforts to finance wide-ranging upgrades to the F-35. An ambitious ‘5+ generation’ upgrade package could narrow the gap in capabilities, but is unlikely to come close to bridging them particularly when considering the speed of the advances which China’s defence sector has consistently proven to be capable of, and the very slow rate at which even less ambitious upgrades, such as those needed to reach the Block 4 standard, have been implemented.
– Do you think that the F-35 would be better than the Su-57 for India?
Likely not for a number of reasons. The primary factor is that India is a neutral state that insists on high levels of autonomy for its fighters. The United States has imposed very strict controls on how its fighters can be used, as can be seen with Pakistan’s F-16s where the bases which they can deploy to and the kind of missions they can fly are strictly regulated. While the possibility was raised by analysts of these restrictions being loosened should India procure the F-16 or F-18, even this was far from certain, and the US is highly unlikely to offer the necessary levels of autonomy for the F-35.
F-35 not better than Su-57 for India
A further factor is that India predominantly operates Russian equipment, with the backbones of its fighter fleet and surface-to-air missile arsenals made up of over 270 Su-30MKI fighters, and ten battalions of S-400 systems respectively. The Indian Air Force would struggle to integrate the F-35 into this network and share data.
The Su-57 has a number of benefits for India, most notably Russia’s willingness to allow for full access to its source codes, allow for very extensive customisation, allow for domestic license production, and provide large scale transfers of sensitive technologies. This has the potential to propel India’s fighter aviation industry forward significantly, allowing for growing levels of indigenisation of Su-57 production as was seen with the Su-30MKI previously.
Should the US be willing to offer the F-35 on remotely comparable terms to those under which Russia is offering the Su-57, it would provide a more sophisticated fighter and represent a major landmark in the two countries’ defence partnership. The US has not offered any clients anything remotely close to the kind of benefits which India is being offered under a large Su-57 deal, however, and despite India’s geopolitical importance it is unlikely that this will ever be considered.
Operation Sindoor
– Do you think that if India would have had the F-35 instead of the Rafale, the Indian Air Force would have come out on top against Pakistani J-10s during Operation Sindoor?
Not much is certain regarding the circumstances of the engagement. The F-35 has never been tested in such a high intensity engagement, nor the J-10, HQ-9B, or other assets involved. The kind of support India was providing its fighters is also unknown. The J-10C has proven capable of successfully engaging fifth generation fighters with AEW&C support, but it remains uncertain how scripted such simulated engagements were. It can be stated with a high degree of certainty that pilots flying F-35s would have very significantly more favourable odds against advanced threats than they would if flying the Rafale.
While the F-35 has very considerable advantages over the J-10C in its combat potential, the support provided by wider networks must be taken into account, and if for example the J-10C had AEW&C and ground radar support and support from electronic warfare aircraft, then the F-35 pilot may face far less favourable odds of success in air-to-air combat. A major shortcoming of the F-35 is its inability to carry its AIM-9X missiles needed for high off boresight engagements when the fighter is stealth configured, meaning if the J-10C can close to a visual range fight, its PL-10 missiles would provide a distinct advantage.
Photo credit: Twitter/X, U.S. Air Force, Sukhoi
