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The country’s only near term option to procure a fifth generation fighter
The first ever participation of the Russian Su-57 fifth generation fighter in the Aero India aviation exhibition has drawn renewed attention to the possibility of the Indian Air Force procuring the aircraft, which has been speculated for over a decade. On February 11 deputy head of the Russian Federal Service for Military-Technical Cooperation Mikhail Babich revealed that talks on the sale of the Su-57 were planned for after the its demonstration at the air exhibition, while retired Air Marshal Anil Chopra was among several Indian sources to point out that it remains effectively the country’s only near term option to procure a fifth generation fighter.
The rapid expansion of China’s J-20 fifth generation fighter fleet, and Pakistan’s expected receipt of the J-35, a lighter counterpart to the J-20, have been cited by Chopra and others as leading causes for urgency, and threaten to leave the current Indian fleet at a tremendous disadvantage. China’s unveiling of two entirely separate sixth generation fighter designs already in flight testing in December 2024 is set to further exacerbate this, and by the early 2030s leave the Indian fleet a full two generations behind.
Although the Sukhoi/Hindustan Aeronautics Fifth Generation Fighter Aircraft (FGFA) joint program to develop a derivative of the Su-57 specifically for Indian use, which included multi-billion dollar technology transfers to India’s defence sector, broke down in the late 2010s, Indian officials have shown continued signs of an interest in Su-57 procurements. It remains uncertain, however, whether the Indian Air Force is expected to be more inclined towards ‘off the shelf’ procurements from Russian production lines, or towards procurements as part of a license production deal.
Licensed production of the Su-57 in India
Licensed production of the Su-57 in India was reported in February 2023 to be under discussion, with the CEO of the Russian arms export agency Rosoboronexport Alexander Mikheev at the time observing:
“The experience of working on the Su-30MKI airplane together with India has demonstrated that our countries can collaborate in such utterly challenging and high-tech projects as the creation of the production facility for the fourth generation fighter. This aircraft has formed the backbone of the Indian Air Force and has proven itself well in active military duty.”
India’s procurement of the Su-30MKI set a number of precedents which could apply to the Su-57. The fighter was heavily customised to meet Indian requirements, and combined features from a number of programs including the Su-30K interceptor and the Su-37 air superiority fighter, such as AL-31FP thrust vectoring engines and the N011M phased array radar. It was the first fighter class in the world to be exported with either of these technologies, and saw over 270 procured for the Indian Air Force – all but 50 of which were assembled domestically under license. (The final production run remains uncertain, with reports of a followup order in 2020 possibly raising production from 272 to 284).
India to acquire Su-57 from Russian production lines
One possibility for India to proceed with procurement of the Su-57 is that the country acquires them exclusively from Russian production lines, which are scheduled to deliver the first of the aircraft for export by the end of the year, likely to the Algerian Air Force. Procuring fighters directly from Russia would provide the fastest way for India to field a fifth generation fighter quickly, and possibly on a competitive schedule with Pakistan’s receipt of the J-35. With Indian fighter units having enjoyed a qualitative edge for decades, the prospect of falling a generation behind would be highly undesirable.
Procurements from Russia are also considerably cheaper than manufacturing under license, as demonstrated by the much higher cost of Su-30MKIs assembled in India compared to those supplied ‘off the shelf’ from Russia. Although the possibility has been raised that initial procurements could be limited in scope, and intended as a stopgap until India’s indigenous Advanced Medium Combat Aircraft (AMCA) fifth generation fighter is operational, the indigenous fighter is only expected to reach a prototype stage in the mid-2030s. This and the fact that preceding Indian aviation programs have consistently set strong precedents for decades long delays makes it likely that the the Su-57 will need to be relied on as more than a limited stopgap aircraft.
Procuring Su-57s ‘off the shelf’
A second more likely possibility is that Su-57s are procured ‘off the shelf’ as a stopgap not for the AMCA, but rather until license production of further Su-57s in India is established. This would mirror the procurement of 18 Su-30K and 50 Su-30MKI fighters from Russia preceding a license production deal. Producing the fighters in India would align with the government’s priorities to reduce arms imports and bolster domestic defence manufacturing, with such an agreement likely to be tied to requirements for significant transfers of technologies to local industry to bolster the AMCA program. Aircraft produced under license could be customised to meet local requirements, including with the integration of a second seat to accommodate a weapons systems officer. Russian officials in 2021 confirmed the development of a twin seat variant of the Su-57 for export.
Customisation is expected to be significantly more limited for the Su-57 than it was for the Su-30, as while Russia had multiple enhanced fourth generation fighter programs developed to mature stages which it was able to draw technologies from for the Su-30MKI, the Su-57 remains its sole mature program. The degree of customisation and extent of the use of indigenous technologies may nevertheless be increased gradually over time, much as was the case with the Su-30. A further possibility is that India will seek to minimise ‘off the shelf’ procurements, and potentially lease Su-57s for use until sufficient numbers are produced domestically. This would mirror its temporary use of 18 non-customised Su-30K fighters, before a decision was made to return them to Russia after deliveries of customised Su-30MKI fighters began.
Joint program
A third possibility is that India and Russia again launch a joint program to develop an enhanced and heavily customised variant of the Su-57, possibly under a different designation such as the ‘Su-60.’ This could make greater use of Indian technologies in particular in its avionics suite, and compensate Russia heavily for much larger scale technology transfers and a greater local share of production. This could similarly be accompanied by the purchase or leasing of Su-57s built in Russia in limited numbers to serve as a stopgap. Such a program could be seen as the optimal means of strengthening the Indian fighter aviation sector to place it in the best position possible to develop the AMCA, which may gain greater urgency in light of China’s rapid progress towards fielding a sixth generation fighter.
The possibility also remains that the second and third options could be combined, with joint development of a heavily customised Su-57 derivative initiated, while license production of a more standard lightly customised Su-57 variant proceeds in the interim. Under such a scenario, production lines could covert to the jointly developed version once development and flight testing is complete, possibly in the 2030s, while license production of a standard version would meet the Indian Air Force’s immediate requirements in the interim.
As China is poised to arm Pakistan with advanced fifth generation fighters, while itself beginning to field sixth generation fighters possibly as early as 2030, the Indian Air Force’s fighter fleet is set to face the most unfavourable technological balance across its borders in its history.
F-35 excluded for political reasons
With the Western world’s only fifth generation fighter in production, the F-35, effectively excluded from consideration for political reasons, the Su-57 appears to be the only option to stem this trend. India’s withdrawal from its contact for 126 Rafale fighters under the Medium Multi-Role Combat Aircraft (MMRCA) tender, and subsequent delays to the Multi-Role Fighter Aircraft tender for 114 combat jets, significantly exacerbated the country’s shortfall of fighter squadrons. It remains a significant possibility that the Su-57 was seen as a more attractive alternative to the fourth generation fighters in these tenders for a large license production deal, particularly as India’s apparent loss of interest in such a deal occurred as China’s J-20 fifth generation fighter program reached major milestones and exceeded foreign expectations.
With the Su-57’s procurement costs remaining comparable to those of the advanced fourth generation fighters India previously considered, while its operational costs are reportedly highly modest for a fifth generation fighter of its size and in the same range as those of the Su-30, the fighter appears highly suitable for Indian requirements. The primary question, however, remains under what format procurements will be made, and whether they will focus on ‘off the shelf’ purchases, licensed production, or the higher risk but potentially most beneficial option for Indian industry of a full joint program.
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