In this article:
The race to develop the first fifth generation stealth fighters
Abraham Abrams is an expert in East Asian military affairs and security holding a masters degree in War Studies from King’s College London, with a thesis on PLA modernisation, as well as a Masters in East Asian International Relations. After years studying China’s defence sector and major weapons programs, as well as the rise of its tech sector and industries more broadly, Abrams concluded that the J-20 program marked a major turning point in the country’s military and technological standings with tremendous geopolitical and security implications.
He has published two books on the subject, including J-20 Mighty Dragon: Asia’s First Stealth Fighter in the Era of China’s Military Rise with Helio & Company, and the longer title China’s Stealth Fighter: The J-20 ‘Mighty Dragon’ and the Growing Challenge to Western Air Dominance with Pen & Sword. The book was assessed in Taiwan to be of particular significance, and accordingly saw publication in translation in Taipei expedited for a release seven months before the English language editions.
The United States and Soviet Union began a race to develop the first and most capable fifth generation stealth fighters in the late 1970s. The Cold War’s end, however, was followed by both a near total collapse of Russian efforts and major cuts and delays to American programs. This provided an opening for a rising and fast modernising Chinese defence industry to position its own ambitious program to produce a world leading fighter jet with next generation capabilities.
The turning point in the balance of power between China and the United States
The J-20 program has epitomised China’s rise from a laggard in combat aviation into a world leader, with the new books detailing the fighter’s technologies, capabilities, production timeline, design priorities, roles, evolution, and the units and locations where it has been deployed. Also detailed are the ways other countries have responded to it, and how the last 30 years of China’s industrial and technology sector’s modernisation positioned the country to produce what may well now be the world’s top air superiority fighter.
The J-20 program is the most high-profile indicator of a turning point in the balance of power between China and the United States, with the books’ assessment of the history of Chinese air superiority capabilities, and how the Korean War in particular has influenced the country to place a very strong emphasis on the need to field a leading fighter for air-to-air combat, thus providing an important deeper understanding of the program.
Important context to understanding the J-20’s significance is the parallel development of supporting assets from aerial tankers to electronic warfare planes, which is also explored in detail. The program is also shown to have had a particularly significant influence in the United States, ranging from placing discourse on the F-35’s modernisation and on sixth generation fighter development in an entirely new context, to stimulating the formation of new counter-stealth aggressor training units, development of new air-to-air missiles, and the acquisition of E-7 ‘flying radar’ aircraft among many other responses to the new challenge.
In November, The Aviation Geek Club asked its readers to submit questions about the J-20 Mighty Dragon. We submitted them to Abrams.
This post features 5 answers. CLICK HERE to read the first part of the Q&A with Abrams.
J-20: a world leading fighter
– Does the J-20 match the performance of U.S. and Western frontline fighters?
A number of factors indicate that the J-20 is a world leading fighter, with factors assessed in the books ranging from the results combat testing, to the standings of China’s tech sector and industrial base, and the country’s growing leadership in a range of strategic technologies with key applications in its fighter industry. It is concluded that the J-20 and the F-35 are effectively in a league of their own, not only because of their uniquely large production scales, but also in their integration of cutting edge new technologies.
The F-22, while designed as a heavier counterpart to the F-35, suffers from wide ranging issues and from avionics that are increasingly out of date, with examples including its lack of helmet mounted sights and distributed aperture systems and its much more limited network centric warfare capabilities. Chief of staff for Air Force futures Lieutenant General Samuel Clinton Hinote thus referred to the Raptor as suffering from “limitations” that “we can’t modernize our way out of,” referring to the Raptor as a “1990s – and even late 1980s – design” – an age often masked by the fact that it only became fully operational close to 2010 due to development delays. This contrasts to the much more modern F-35 and J-20 which continue to see each successive production batch enhanced with superior technologies.
J-20 program AI applications
Whether the J-20 and F-35 are a match for one another is a contentious question. The two were designed with focuses on very different missions, with the F-35 likely to have a strong advantage in air defence suppression, while the J-20 may well have an edge in air-to-air combat. The J-20 was developed by the country with the largest tech sector and industrial base, and the F-35 by the second largest, although the United States’ strong headstart in many key areas means the F-35’s new AN/APG-85 radar and AIM-260 missiles may well be more advanced than their Chinese counterparts.
It is notable that the development of both was initiated specifically in response to the challenge posed by the J-20. In terms of avionics, the J-20’s network centric warfare capabilities and subsystems such as distributed aperture systems place it far ahead of Western fighters other than the F-35. In terms of flight performance, the J-20 is certainly faster, more maneuverable, can deploy missiles from higher altitudes, and carries a larger radar than the F-35, and has a longer range than any Western fighter. Either way, there is little doubt that the J-20 is by far the most serious challenger that the F-35 could face in combat.
– What AI advances could be integrated into the J-20 to develop its autonomous combat capability?
I would need a few pages to answer that in full, because the potential applications of artificial intelligence in the J-20 program are tremendous and affect a wide range of aspects of its performance.
How AI could support J-20 operations
AI is already being used to significant accelerate the design of new hypersonic weapons and ships for China’s armed forces, and is likely play a central role in the design of new generations of weapons for the J-20, and potentially to implement design changes that improve future variants. Functions where AI could support J-20 operations include processing data from surveillance assets, assisting with pilot training, supporting command and control and helping to check hardware for problems during maintenance – which it will likely do more efficiently, with less room for error, and at a much lower cost than human personnel.
AI could also be tasked with conducting electronic warfare from onboard the J-20, supporting or replacing a weapons systems officer in the second seat in doing so. It is also likely to play a central role in piloting semi-autonomous or fully autonomous UAVs accompanying the fighters.
The longer of the two J-20 books published with Pen & Sword provides a more detailed analysis of how AI has been used already in combat aviation in China and the United States, the standings of both countries’ tech sectors in the field, and the likely future impacts the technology will have on the program including detailed assessments of its most significant expected future applications.
– Despite all the humdrum about the J-20s roles, is there still a consensus regarding its ability to hurl long-range missiles at enemy surface fleet formations?
Although J-20s have consistently been displayed with air-to-air weapons, there are significant indicators that the aircraft are equipped with air to surface weapons and that units are trained for such operations.
Air-to-surface capabilities
The August 2021 Zapad/Vzaimodeystviye Sino-Russian strategic military exercises saw J-20s spearhead a simulated air assault on enemy command centers and air defences. The Chinese state run Global Times reported: “The J-20s kicked open the door and seized air superiority by accurately attacking high- value targets on the ground, and this was the leading role the J-20s had played in the exercises as stealth fighter jets … This allowed ground troops and other non-stealth warplanes to proceed with their missions with much less risks.” The fighters would similarly simulate strikes and electronic attacks on ground targets in subsequent exercises.
China fields a wide range of highly sophisticated assets well suited to launching strikes on enemy ground units and surface ships, but only one top end air superiority fighter, which makes it likely that J-20s will continue to be prioritised for air-to-air combat until the fleet grows significantly larger. This was alluded to by the J-20’s chief designer Yang Wei, who stated: “‘Kicking in the door’” is definitely a key aspect, but just using ‘Kicking the door’ still has certain limitations, and it will also play other roles.
This is also related to the batch size. When the batch size is small, it is an application, and when the number of equipment is large, it is another application.” Once more J-20s are in service, it is likely that the aircraft will be relied on more heavily for a wider range of roles. Although its stealth capabilities, cruising speed, and long range potentially make it a potent anti shipping platform, however, like all stealth fighters its limited internal weapons carrying capacity restricts its ability to carry larger classes of anti-ship missiles, or to saturate enemy warships with large volumes of fire.
Exercises
– How does the PLAAF deploy its J-20s in exercises, and what roles do they often play against non-stealth Chinese fighter jets in those?
As previously mentioned, J-20s have simulated penetration, suppression and destruction of enemy air defences in exercises in the past. In the fighter class’ first years in service it was frequently reported to be exercising alongside the country’s two advanced new fourth generation fighters that entered service around the same time and used many of the same weapons and technologies – the J-10C and J-16. The results of simulated air-to-air engagements have been reported on a number of times, with the People’s Liberation Army Air Force’s second most capable fighter class, the J-16, having gone up against the J-20 several times.
In some exercises such as those reported in January 2022, J-20s used Luneberg lenses to nullify their stealth capabilities when engaging J-16s in simulated combat. The J-20s prevailed using unspecified other performance advantages, with both fighter classes evading multiple simulated attacks and pulling high G manoeuvres. Other simulated engagements have seen J-20s tackle J-16s with their full stealth capabilities, which reports indicate were much more one-sided and saw the aircraft detect their targets first, fire on them first, and break away from combat first, achieving simulated kills.
These exercises provide Chinese fighter units with valuable experience in combating fifth generation aircraft, which is increasingly vital as F-35 deployments in the Western Pacific continue to expand rapidly. J-16s are reported to have been able to detect J-20s on some occasions during simulated engagements, with the fighter class carrying a much larger radar than any fighter in the Western world, and one that is considered similarly sophisticated to and potentially more powerful than that of the J-20 itself.
Mirroring the continuous modernisation and updating of the F-35 fleet
– Can this be considered the definitive aircraft? Or should we expect an evolution that will substantially modify the project?
The J-20’s design has continued to evolve rapidly, although it remains open to interpretation which variant could be considered definitive. The initial variant with Russian sourced engines saw approximately 40 fighters produced, while close to 300 fighters with WS-10 engines are thought to have been produced since then, with production potentially set to terminate in 2025 or 2026 as a new variant with WS-15 engines succeeds it. The next stage of the J-20 program involves a significantly evolved airframe design, which was first seen in December 2022, and has a much flatter cockpit canopy with a distinctive low-profile appearance blending into the fighter’s raised spine and a nose radome with slight geometric revisions.
The new variant is expected to have an improved aerodynamic performance, superior stealth capabilities, and possibly higher fuel capacity accommodated in its larger spine. Performance improvements between successive batches of J-20s have been highly significant, while software continues to be updated frequently across the fleet. This mirrors the continuous modernisation and updating of the F-35 fleet, which is the only fighter program in the world of a comparable size.
Photo credit: U.S. Air Force, Own work N509FZ, Alert5 and emperornie via Wikipedia
